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Market Outlooks
What history will COVID-19 write?
The COVID-19 pandemic has made history in more ways than one, including catalyzing an economic downturn that cost the US more than 20 million jobs and a policy response that saw the Federal Government pass the $2.1 trillion CARES Act, the largest ever US economic rescue package. That said, we don’t think COVID-19 is finished filling up our history books. We think the long-term consequences of the virus could prove much more meaningful than what we have seen to date.
Behavioral Finance
Focused expertise
There have been many restrictions placed on the normal rhythms of life in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The interactions we typically take for granted such as going to restaurants, spending time with friends, working out at the gym, and traveling on vacation have all been curtailed in an effort to tame the pandemic.
Market Outlooks
The market as a leading indicator…for the market
We frequently write about the stock market as a leading indicator of the real economy. The idea being
the market will anticipate the economic environment to come, rallying in the face of awful economic news and selling off in the face of constructive economic news.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
How the Federal Reserve is like Spike from Happy Days
As a child of the 70s, I have come to embrace a few, eternal truths: disco should have never died; big collars were a good idea, and the Fonz was the coolest guy who ever lived. Speaking of the Fonz, I am reminded of a Happy Days episode featuring Spike, the Fonz’s nephew, and how that episode and Spike can help us all better understand monetary policy today. Seriously.
Market Outlooks
How We’re Positioning Portfolios to Outperform
This piece is approved to use with clients.
President and Global Chief Investment Officer Daniel Needham explains how asset valuation allows us to calculate expected returns for the long-term.
Market Outlooks
Our Valuation-Driven Asset Allocation Views Looking Beyond COVID-19
This piece is approved to use with clients.
While we haven’t faced a global pandemic of this kind before and the path to normalization is uncertain, we are encouraged by the aggressive policy response from central banks and governments which we think will be effective in averting a financial crisis. Thus, we think the recent sell-off has created significant opportunities for long-term investors like us. Read our commentary to learn our latest thinking.
Market Outlooks
Where We See Opportunities Ahead
This piece is approved to use with clients.
The news today makes the short-term economic outlook uncertain. Yet, we invest for the long term, not just for the next few months or even years. Given the attractive valuations we saw near the end of the first quarter, we think long-term returns look much better for investors now than they did just three months ago.
Please join our discussion with President and Global Chief Investment Officer Daniel Needham, Co-Head of Target Risk Strategies Dan McNeela, and Head of US Equity Strategies Michael Corty.
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Wire: It’s always darkest before the dawn
This piece is approved to use with clients.
It is one thing to understand we are living through an unprecedented, pandemic driven economic downturn, and all together another to learn the US unemployment rate is 14.7% and that 20.5 million of our fellow Americans lost their jobs in April.