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Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: One thing we are NOT worried about today
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There are many issues that have investors concerned as we are set to say goodbye to summer, including a flat to partially inverted yield curve, deteriorating US/ China relations, and a slowdown in manufacturing activity in the US and around the world. As we previously wrote, we don’t believe the yield curve is indicating a recession is imminent and we do believe the US and China will eventually solve for trade, an outcome which should prove to be a positive catalyst for manufacturing globally.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: It feels like Groundhog Day… Bill Murray, trade, tariffs, and the markets
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In the film Groundhog Day, Bill Murray plays TV weatherman Phil Connors who, against his wishes, is sent to report on the annual Groundhog Day event in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania and, while there, relives Groundhog Day again, and again and again with an eye toward his having the perspective and the time to become a better person, which he eventually does.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Bizarro bonds – guaranteed to lose you money, and not just in a comic strip
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Fans of Superman – or Seinfeld – may be familiar with Bizarro World, a cubed planet far out in space that is inhabited by imperfect duplicates of Superman, Lois Lane, and their friends. In a nutshell, on Bizarro – relative to earth – up is down, hot is cold, good is bad, and beautiful is ugly.
Behavioral Finance
There is never a good time to invest
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Consider something you’ve always wanted to do but you’ve put off doing because it scares you. In fact, just think of something you’d eventually like to do but haven’t yet, since you may not even be aware of all your reasons for not having embarked on that journey just yet.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: What did the Fed just do? Why? What comes next?
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Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policymaking body of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), met and announced it was lowering the Federal Funds rate by 25 bps (the first interest rate cut in more than 10 years) to a range of 2.0% to 2.25% and ending the runoff of its $3.8 trillion asset portfolio. Before we examine why the Fed took these two very important steps to support the US economy, a bit of background.
Behavioral Finance
The 5 money maps
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It is my hope that as we are better able to map the landscape of love and money, we will increasingly have a scaffolding for having better conversations about where and why our attitudes may differ.
Market Outlooks
Baby boom – Great for economic growth, but there isn’t one in sight
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At a high level, two factors drive economic growth: 1. growth in a labor force (e.g. more people working this year versus last year) 2. growth in productivity (e.g. people producing more this year versus last year). So, the basic formula for growing an economy is people + productivity = economic growth.
Behavioral Finance
Love and money
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Have you had a disagreement with a loved one recently about money? If so, you’re hardly alone. An American Express survey found money took the top worry spot among married couples (33%), far outpacing the second-place intimacy (11%), children (9%), and troubles with in-laws (4%).
Market Outlooks
Welcome back, welcome back, welcome back!
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A hallmark of the Great Recession was a decline in the prime age labor force participation rate from 83% to 80%, see the chart below. While a three-point drop might not seem significant, it reflects millions of Americans walking away from the economy, giving up on ever finding gainful employment.
Market Outlooks
It’s a big birthday for the bull market, and we see a successful quest for greater gains
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Happy birthday bull market! The longest running bull market in United States history hit a major milestone last week, turning 10 on March 9. It sure has been an interesting and exciting 10 years.
Market Outlooks
Equity and fixed income return volatility
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People need no help picturing equity return volatility. Anyone invested in the equity market in the middle 2000s still likely feels the scars from the subprime mortgage crisis. Prior to that, there was the dot com burst of the early 2000s.