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Market Outlooks
The Market Has a Math Problem
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The market has a math problem—or does it? It all depends on where rates go.
Behavioral Finance
How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
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It’s only natural for someone invested in a poorly performing active equity mutual fund to wonder if it’s time to make a change. Should an investor sell a fund if it trails its benchmark for a year? Three years? Five years?
Market Outlooks
Does China Hold the Keys to a Global Economic Bounce?
A late '90s-style reacceleration may not be in the cards.
Market Outlooks
What's the Price of Uncertainty?
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Uncertainty & demographics put a premium on cash flow.
Behavioral Finance
We Don’t Have to Have a Recession
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There is not a “natural” economic reason for this expansion to end.
Behavioral Finance
Long-Term is Longer Than You Think
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Investment time horizon is a critical concept in building wealth. Most investors have very long investment time horizons, typically decades or more.
Behavioral Finance
Looking Past the Headlines
We are experiencing a new peak in the rhetoric around trade, geo-politics, the economy and the business cycle. We have also seen increased market volatility.
Market Outlooks
An Improving Narrative?
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Jurrien Timmer April 2019 Commentary: I think the storyline is about to get better for markets
Behavioral Finance
Behavioral Advisor: Why Invest Now? A Tale of Three Investors
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“Now’s not a good time to invest,” or “I’m waiting for the right conditions” are familiar refrains we hear from investors and advisors alike. Fortunately for long-term investors who don’t take regular withdrawals from their portfolios, the sequence of returns doesn’t affect the ultimate investment outcome.
Behavioral Finance
Behavioral Advisor: Does the Economy Predict Stock Returns?
Investors, economists and the media spend an enormous amount of time and energy trying to forecast the economy. The idea is that forecasting economic growth will give us an idea of where the stock market is headed. Surprisingly, no predictive relationship exists between current economic conditions and the current stock market.
Investing Ideas
Combining Factors to Target Specific Investment Outcomes
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A white paper that explores using a factor-based approach to portfolio construction. By combining factor exposures, investors can create a "core" equity portfolio and by adjusting the factor allocations can tailor their portfolios to their own particular investing style/desired outcome.
Manager & Investment Selection
Strategy Series: Strategy Preference Can Indicate Expected Stock Market Return
Rather surprisingly, the equity strategy framework can provide an estimate of current expected stock market returns. This is accomplished by measuring the recent investor response to each strategy, which, it turns out, captures the deep behavioral currents driving market returns. The resulting information is useful when managing equity market exposure.