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Market Outlooks
A four-month shopping spree
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Measured from October to January, holiday retail sales impressed.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: The market impact of coronavirus has begun to spread
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The floodgates are opening. Companies are beginning to warn that the coronavirus outbreak will impact earnings, and stocks have begun to react negatively. Yesterday, Apple announced that the contagion will cause it to miss revenue forecasts for the quarter. The problems are on both the sales and production ends: Most Apple stores in China remain closed, and while Apple factories there have reopened, they are not operating at full capacity but instead are slowly ramping up production. In addition, Tesla and Alibaba have recently provided coronavirus-related earnings warnings. Alibaba has gone so far as to label the coronavirus outbreak a “black swan event.”
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: Economic growth should eventually show signs of improvement
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Equity markets continued to rise last week, as investors began to look past coronavirus-related fears. In our view, the economic damage caused by the coronavirus could be significant in isolated areas but it should be relatively temporary and hopefully well contained. We see no signs that the 10+ year economic expansion or equity bull market are likely to end, although we think valuations look stretched, which presents near-term risks.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Coronavirus and Domestic Credit
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The last recession was the sub-prime mortgage crisis, before that the dot.com bubble aggravated by the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and before that it was the Savings & Loan crisis. In these past recessions there were, at the time, issues not generally foreseen, but when they broke it opened fissures in the economy that ultimately led to a recession.
Market Outlooks
PMC Weekly Market Brief - February 18, 2020
PMC Weekly Market Brief: February 18, 2020
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary: Treasury yields rise slightly, with all eyes on the coronavirus
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U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly last week, led by the short end of the yield curve. Yields were pushed higher over optimism about the containment of the coronavirus in China. Market expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in 2020 continue to hover around 1.5 cuts, with the first rate reduction anticipated in September.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Testing our global outlook
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The February update to our Global Outlook reaffirms our expectation for global growth to edge higher this year, even as the coronavirus outbreak has introduced uncertainties. Past epidemics have seen V-shaped economic recoveries – a pattern we expect see this time as well. Yet the depth and width of the “V” are highly uncertain. This outbreak could be more disruptive than past ones because it could be more severe, and because of greater reliance on global supply chains.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Economic Indicators Suggest President Trump's Reelection
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In testimony on Capitol Hill this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly praised the strength of the U.S. economy across multiple indicators. He pointed to an historically-low unemployment rate, rising wages, and continual, moderate overall growth. Powell has a notably turbulent relationship with President Donald Trump, but his assessment should have been music to the ears of top White House and Trump campaign officials (even if the president could not help live-Tweeting his criticism of Powell’s testimony). The economy, after all, is historically perhaps the most reliable presidential election indicator.