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Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Looking Down Ballot
Last week, we discussed the state of the campaign for the White House, but President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden will not be the only two candidates with their names on the ballot this November.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
What Does Current Polling Say About November?
In a normal presidential election year, June headlines would be filled with speculation about who the White House challenger will pick as a running mate
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The Impact of COVID-19 on State Budgets Will Ripple to the Broader Economy
What type of economic recovery will the U.S. see in the coming months? U, V, or W—or will it be more like a swoosh?
Fixed Income Insights
May 2020 Fixed Income Market Update
This piece is approved to use with clients.
In our view, the markets feel much healthier at the end of April than a month ago, but underappreciated in the improved sentiment is not only the scale of March policy action, but its continuation into April. Actions announced in April would ordinarily have remained in headlines and discussion for weeks, but the nearly half trillion dollar U.S. fiscal stimulus package has been treated almost as a footnote to its much larger cousin in March. Similarly, Fed and other central banks not only continued to implement the massive programs initiated last month, but significantly expanded on them.
Fixed Income Insights
Municipal Yields Have Converged
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Over the past several weeks, yields between short- and intermediate-term Municipal Bonds have converged. This may be an opportunity for investors to significantly reduce interest rate risk while sacrificing minimal income since shorter-term bonds typically have less sensitivity to rates.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Business Liability Protection: The Red Line for the Next COVID-19 Relief Package
“We have to get our country open,” President Donald Trump said on Tuesday.
Fixed Income Insights
Neither bulls nor bears last forever
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While bull markets don’t last forever, neither do bear markets. Since 1928, the strength and duration of S&P 500® bull markets has meaningfully outweighed that of bear markets.
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Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Economic Indicators Suggest President Trump's Reelection
This piece is approved to use with clients.
In testimony on Capitol Hill this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly praised the strength of the U.S. economy across multiple indicators. He pointed to an historically-low unemployment rate, rising wages, and continual, moderate overall growth. Powell has a notably turbulent relationship with President Donald Trump, but his assessment should have been music to the ears of top White House and Trump campaign officials (even if the president could not help live-Tweeting his criticism of Powell’s testimony). The economy, after all, is historically perhaps the most reliable presidential election indicator.