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Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The Payroll Holiday That Isn’t
Amidst a stalemate between the two parties on Capitol Hill regarding additional COVID-related legislation, President Donald Trump on August 8 issued an executive memorandum policy that said U.S. workers would not have to pay their Social Security payroll taxes from September 1, 2020 until December 31, 2020.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
At This Point, Do Deficits Matter?
Last week, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) – the nonpartisan federal agency within Congress that provides budget and economic information to lawmakers and is tasked with providing an analysis of the impact of every bill Congress enacts on the national budget – released a report that projects the U.S. annual budget deficit will exceed $3.3 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2020. That’s the end of this month.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
A New Monetary Policy
Last Thursday, while almost 24 million Americans were gearing up to watch President Donald Trump’s Republican National Convention speech and the literal fireworks that followed, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave an historic speech of his own that sent rockets around the monetary policy world.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
An Update on the Federal Government’s Business Relief Programs
While it may seem hard to believe that March was just five months ago – not five years ago – that’s when Washington created two loan programs that were supposed to help struggling businesses keep doors open and employees on the payroll.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The Women Who Came Before
Tonight, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) will take the “stage” at the Democratic National Convention to accept the party’s nomination for vice president of the United States.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
COVID-19 isn’t going away
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Colossal policy responses in the second quarter reassured investors that the U.S. economy can weather the COVID-19 downturn, with a relatively quick return to risk assets pushing the S&P 500® up 20.5% for the period, its best quarter since 1998. After bottoming in March, U.S. stocks rose as much as 44% before the rally stalled a bit over the last few weeks of the quarter. We saw a few signs of hesitation for more policy among lawmakers as indicators improved, but overall both Congress and the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain prepared to do more.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The U.S.-China relationship in a changing global economy
This piece is approved to use with clients.
An inevitable blame game between the U.S. and China has followed COVID-19, but the crisis has really just extended the “trust deficit” that has been steadily building between the two countries in recent years. Though the “Phase One” agreement between the countries remains intact, it is very fragile and China is turning to a more domestic focus. The U.S.-China relationship, however, remains pivotal for the global economy, and in our mini-forum devoted to the topic, we began with a discussion of the relationship from China’s perspective.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
U.S. presidential election outlook
This piece is approved to use with clients.
As the 2020 election season heats up and President Trump’s odds of winning continue to run cold, we believe it is important to understand the investment implications of a potential change in government versus the status quo. We have outlined the policy implications of the three most likely election outcomes: a Democratic sweep, a Biden presidency with a Republican Senate and a Trump presidency with a Republican Senate. This analysis assumes that Democrats hold the House, which we believe is highly likely.