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Market Outlooks
What history will COVID-19 write?
The COVID-19 pandemic has made history in more ways than one, including catalyzing an economic downturn that cost the US more than 20 million jobs and a policy response that saw the Federal Government pass the $2.1 trillion CARES Act, the largest ever US economic rescue package. That said, we don’t think COVID-19 is finished filling up our history books. We think the long-term consequences of the virus could prove much more meaningful than what we have seen to date.
Market Outlooks
The market as a leading indicator…for the market
We frequently write about the stock market as a leading indicator of the real economy. The idea being
the market will anticipate the economic environment to come, rallying in the face of awful economic news and selling off in the face of constructive economic news.
Client Relationships
Positioning yourself as a behavioral coach
While there is plenty of economic upside to the specialization required of modern life, one downside is that hyper-specialization can lead to siloed thinking. For a psychologist like me, the hammer that I have (an understanding of the power of behavior) can lead me to see behavioral “nails” everywhere, even in places where they may not truly exist.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Pick a letter, any letter
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We got our first look at Q1 Gross Domestic Product last week, and as expected, it wasn’t pretty. While the Q1 GDP number is subject to revision, it showed the economy contracted (4.8%) Q to Q.
Market Outlooks
Pick a letter, any letter
If one considers that the coronavirus didn’t hit the US economy hard until mid-March, and that our economy has been shut down since, a recession is a foregone conclusion, with Q2 GDP expected to contract about 30% Q to Q
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: How can oil be worth less than nothing?
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They say if you live long enough you really do see everything. Well, last week investors saw something they had never seen before – the price of a barrel of oil going for negative $37, at least based on the May 2020 futures contract on West Texas Intermediate (WTI).
Market Outlooks
A bear market bottom checklist
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A bear market bottom has historically been marked by several economic and market signposts, including depressed investor sentiment, widening credit spreads and a policy response to the systemic shock facing the country. More importantly, as we try to identify when . . .
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: When it rains
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Most of the focus on COVID-19 has understandably been on its physical impact, but the psychological impact of a pandemic is also worth considering. Social interaction is a huge source of psychological wellbeing, and its loss, paired with concerns about the market, as well as the health and wellbeing of loved ones, can begin to take a psychological toll.
Market Outlooks
A 30 year perspective, and a bit more perspective on the 30-year mortgage
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Adopting a long-term view on investing and the markets is needed most when it is difficult to do—like right now, when stocks are extremely volatile and under pressure as investors try to determine how COVID-19 and this year’s election will ultimately impact corporate and consumer sentiment and spending, corporate profits, and the pricing of risk assets.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: The Fed lowers, Biden rises…Now what?
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Market volatility continued through the last week due to ongoing concerns surrounding the spread of COVID19, the shifting Democratic presidential candidate landscape, and their combined economic impact. We’ve experienced wild daily moves in the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500), but as of Wednesday’s close, we’re just 7.5% below the all-time high reached on February 19.
Market Outlooks
Weekly wire: One thing we shouldn’t be stressed about
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Last week was an exceptionally difficult week for risk assets, emphasized by Thursday’s record 1,192 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average – a selloff sparked by growing concern that the Coronavirus could prove to carry a greater weight on global growth than originally thought. Further – and not to pick sides on the political front – the ascendancy of the Sanders campaign became another concerning point for many on Wall Street, given the candidate’s proposed policies generally viewed as negative for the markets. It has been a stressful several days, to say the least.
Market Outlooks
Continuing concerns regarding COVID-19
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The global equity markets have continued their decline, which began on February 20, in response to fears over the COVID-19 (coronavirus) becoming a global pandemic. The S&P 500 Index fell -12.0% from February 20-27 and is on pace for another decline on February 28. International equity markets have fared better, with the MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets indices declining -7.4% and -6.6%, respectively. The last six days has been the fastest correction (10% drawdown) on record for the S&P 500 off an all-time high, which has likely exacerbated market fears. With the drawdown, the markets are pricing in significant earnings declines as a result of the virus, and certainly weaker global economic activity.