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Market Outlooks
Advisor Perspectives: CAPE is a Very Noisy Market Predictor
Analysts have many ways to estimate expected market returns. The challenge is to identify those few that provide usable information for making investment decisions. In this article, I discuss one of the common mistakes made in this type of analysis and why the cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE), developed by Robert Shiller, is not nearly as reliable a predictor of market returns as most claim it to be.
Market Outlooks
Behavioural Advisor: Beware Predictions and Magic Elixirs
The market and economy have gone through unprecedented events with a global pandemic, the shut-down of economies, massive government intervention and dramatic market swings.
Active/Passive Management
Advisor Perspectives: The Dawn of a New Active-Equity Era
Is the market environment turning favorable for active equity managers? It seems a strange question to ask in the midst of a pandemic and heightened market volatility, but history tells us that it is during just such turbulent times that active managers excel. There is accumulating evidence that market conditions are growing more attractive for showcasing stock-picking skills.
Market Outlooks
Is This Rebound for Real? And Is Now a Good Time to Double-Check Risk Tolerance?
This piece is approved to use with clients.
We take a closer look at the recent US stock market rally from its March low, and address some questions frequently asked by advisors around assessing risk and behavioral coaching in these unusual times.
Market Outlooks
‘Essential Businesses’: Managing Focused Stock Portfolios in a COVID-19 World
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Our equity portfolio managers talk about how they're navigating the COVID-19 crisis and their outlook.
Market Outlooks
U.S. vs. International Stocks: Will Next Decade’s Performance Look Different From the Last?
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International equity markets have trailed the U.S. for more than a decade. Does that make this asset class an opportunity or a value trap? We describe why we think international markets are poised for outperformance.
Market Outlooks
After the Rebound, Is It Time to Sell?
This piece is approved to use with clients.
We believe markets have priced in a fairly optimistic economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis, but some markets have increased significantly, while others have lagged. Here’s our take on long-term opportunities.
Market Outlooks
How We’re Positioning Portfolios to Outperform
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President and Global Chief Investment Officer Daniel Needham explains how asset valuation allows us to calculate expected returns for the long-term.
Market Outlooks
Our Valuation-Driven Asset Allocation Views Looking Beyond COVID-19
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While we haven’t faced a global pandemic of this kind before and the path to normalization is uncertain, we are encouraged by the aggressive policy response from central banks and governments which we think will be effective in averting a financial crisis. Thus, we think the recent sell-off has created significant opportunities for long-term investors like us. Read our commentary to learn our latest thinking.
Market Outlooks
Where We See Opportunities Ahead
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The news today makes the short-term economic outlook uncertain. Yet, we invest for the long term, not just for the next few months or even years. Given the attractive valuations we saw near the end of the first quarter, we think long-term returns look much better for investors now than they did just three months ago.
Please join our discussion with President and Global Chief Investment Officer Daniel Needham, Co-Head of Target Risk Strategies Dan McNeela, and Head of US Equity Strategies Michael Corty.