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Market Outlooks
Don’t fight the Fed. And, maybe the Federal Government too
Among the better-known Wall Street maxims is “Don’t fight the Fed,” which speaks to the idea that monetary policy and the trend in interest rates determines the direction of the stock market.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: The Irrelevant Election
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With voters so divided and angry, the outcome on November 3 will be consequential for many reasons—just not for the stock market.
Market Outlooks
Two bits of good news. And, what are two bits, anyway?
The economic headlines of late have been driven by – and understandably so – BIG pieces of news, both bad and good.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Will Europe Waste The Crisis?
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Investors should be rooting for EU leaders as they attempt reforms that do more than just ease the immediate pain.
Market Outlooks
[Webinar Replay] From Volatility to Opportunity in Emerging Markets Debt
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COVID-19, lower oil prices and the related shock to the global economy have weighed heavily on emerging markets debt—but opportunities have emerged as well. Join us as Barings’ EMD team shares their latest market views and discusses how they are navigating the current environment.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Why Aren’t Markets Tanking?
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There’s a list of reasons that might make an investor squirm, but there may be change afoot they should watch closely.
Market Outlooks
What small caps might be telling us about the economy and the market
For a big country, we sure have an affinity for little things. Think TV shows: “Tiny House Nation”; sayings: “Big things come in small packages”; and children’s books: “The Little Engine That Could” as being among the more obvious examples of our love of things little or small. It is a love of small things which brings us to the focus of this week’s Weekly Wire, US small cap stocks, and what the asset class might be telling us about the US economy and the US stock market as we approach the second half of 2020.
Market Outlooks
The EM Default Picture: More Nuanced Than Headlines Imply
The coronavirus pandemic is undoubtedly creating short-term and long-term challenges for emerging
markets (EMs). But not all sovereign and corporate issuers can be painted with the same broad brush,
and placing too much weight on overly dire forecasts may result in missed opportunities.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Why June May be the Most Important Month of the Year
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We’ll have a substantially better picture of how quickly global demand may recover.
Market Outlooks
What history will COVID-19 write?
The COVID-19 pandemic has made history in more ways than one, including catalyzing an economic downturn that cost the US more than 20 million jobs and a policy response that saw the Federal Government pass the $2.1 trillion CARES Act, the largest ever US economic rescue package. That said, we don’t think COVID-19 is finished filling up our history books. We think the long-term consequences of the virus could prove much more meaningful than what we have seen to date.
Market Outlooks
The market as a leading indicator…for the market
We frequently write about the stock market as a leading indicator of the real economy. The idea being
the market will anticipate the economic environment to come, rallying in the face of awful economic news and selling off in the face of constructive economic news.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: The Pandemic & The “Thucydides Trap”
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Recall that when we last left our rivals, they had just struck a partial agreement on rebalancing bilateral trade even as they continued to snarl about the long list of intractable issues that divided them.