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Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Pick a letter, any letter
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We got our first look at Q1 Gross Domestic Product last week, and as expected, it wasn’t pretty. While the Q1 GDP number is subject to revision, it showed the economy contracted (4.8%) Q to Q.
Market Outlooks
Pick a letter, any letter
If one considers that the coronavirus didn’t hit the US economy hard until mid-March, and that our economy has been shut down since, a recession is a foregone conclusion, with Q2 GDP expected to contract about 30% Q to Q
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: How can oil be worth less than nothing?
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They say if you live long enough you really do see everything. Well, last week investors saw something they had never seen before – the price of a barrel of oil going for negative $37, at least based on the May 2020 futures contract on West Texas Intermediate (WTI).
Market Outlooks
THE BOND BLUES
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The blues have hit the bond market, but we believe current dislocations can create opportunities for active managers of individual bond portfolios.
Market Outlooks
A bear market bottom checklist
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A bear market bottom has historically been marked by several economic and market signposts, including depressed investor sentiment, widening credit spreads and a policy response to the systemic shock facing the country. More importantly, as we try to identify when . . .
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: When it rains
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Most of the focus on COVID-19 has understandably been on its physical impact, but the psychological impact of a pandemic is also worth considering. Social interaction is a huge source of psychological wellbeing, and its loss, paired with concerns about the market, as well as the health and wellbeing of loved ones, can begin to take a psychological toll.
Market Outlooks
SUNDAY NIGHT SURPRISE
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In attempt to go all in, the Federal Reserve cut rates on Sunday night to the lower bound, 0-0.25% and announced a $700 billion Quantitative Easing (QE) program.
Market Outlooks
A 30 year perspective, and a bit more perspective on the 30-year mortgage
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Adopting a long-term view on investing and the markets is needed most when it is difficult to do—like right now, when stocks are extremely volatile and under pressure as investors try to determine how COVID-19 and this year’s election will ultimately impact corporate and consumer sentiment and spending, corporate profits, and the pricing of risk assets.
Market Outlooks
A PERFECT STORM: PANDEMIC, PETROLEUM AND POLITICS
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Stocks were hit hard yesterday as coronavirus fears spread, oil prices plummeted, and uncertainties on the political front continued to linger.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: The Fed lowers, Biden rises…Now what?
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Market volatility continued through the last week due to ongoing concerns surrounding the spread of COVID19, the shifting Democratic presidential candidate landscape, and their combined economic impact. We’ve experienced wild daily moves in the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500), but as of Wednesday’s close, we’re just 7.5% below the all-time high reached on February 19.
Market Outlooks
Weekly wire: One thing we shouldn’t be stressed about
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Last week was an exceptionally difficult week for risk assets, emphasized by Thursday’s record 1,192 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average – a selloff sparked by growing concern that the Coronavirus could prove to carry a greater weight on global growth than originally thought. Further – and not to pick sides on the political front – the ascendancy of the Sanders campaign became another concerning point for many on Wall Street, given the candidate’s proposed policies generally viewed as negative for the markets. It has been a stressful several days, to say the least.
Market Outlooks
Continuing concerns regarding COVID-19
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The global equity markets have continued their decline, which began on February 20, in response to fears over the COVID-19 (coronavirus) becoming a global pandemic. The S&P 500 Index fell -12.0% from February 20-27 and is on pace for another decline on February 28. International equity markets have fared better, with the MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets indices declining -7.4% and -6.6%, respectively. The last six days has been the fastest correction (10% drawdown) on record for the S&P 500 off an all-time high, which has likely exacerbated market fears. With the drawdown, the markets are pricing in significant earnings declines as a result of the virus, and certainly weaker global economic activity.