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Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Stocks were hit last week in the face of inflation fears, but I believe it was a temporary adjustment to a rise in rates.
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Last week was what I would call a “Rip Van Winkle” week. Set in the colonial days of America, Rip Van Winkle is the story of a man who, sick of his wife, decides to go for a hike in the mountains with his dog. He meets a group of strange men who offer him an unusual drink, causing him to fall asleep.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: A Pessimist's Guide to the Rest of the Year
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The base case is bright in spite of recent market jitters, but we’re watching 10 numbers that would signal a darker turn.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: As Israel leads the way in COVID-19 vaccinations, events such as concerts and theater performances return after an 11-month ban
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When I was in business school back in the late 1990s, I found that one of the most heavily used — and effective — teaching tools was the case study. Learning from what other companies and industries did or didn’t do was incredibly helpful in gaining understanding and insight.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Who Will Balance the Budgets?
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It’s not today’s problem, but it’s a question investors will start asking more often as the Republican Party confronts its identity crisis.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Bitcoin has gained credibility over the past three years, but I believe its use as a currency, a diversifier or an inflation hedge is a bit off the mark.
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The last time I wrote about bitcoin was back in December 2017. Back then there was a lot of excitement around bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies because both the Chicago Board Options Exchange and CME Group had begun offering bitcoin futures. Investors were excited about this opportunity, sending up the price of a single bitcoin thousands of dollars higher over the several previous weeks.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: How Will Europe Tackle the Biggest Question of the Year?
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Besides the rollout of vaccines that will save us from life inside four walls, we will know how governments want to handle the bill of the pandemic.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: As we enter a new lunar year, the Fed reiterates its stance on inflation and stimulus.
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We have just begun a new lunar year — the Year of the Ox. I think we are all happy to have said goodbye to the Year of the Rat — although I suppose we should have known this last lunar year was going to be bad because the Year of the Rat is traditionally considered to be a year of turbulence in which change or disaster can happen. Interestingly, the rat and the ox have an unusual relationship.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Has "irrational exuberance" gotten the better of markets?
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Well, let me try to answer that question based on my own experience. I entered the financial services industry in late 1995, a bright-eyed and eager runaway from the practice of law. Not soon afterward, I listened intently to a historic speech by then-Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan, who suggested that the stock market was exhibiting “irrational exuberance.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Seven Crucial Questions This Earnings Season Can Answer
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As investors strain to imagine the post-pandemic normal, a blurry vision is already coming into view.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Market speculation hit a new level this week with GameStop, and the Fed threw cold water on inflation concerns.
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The Federal Reserve (Fed) met last week and, as I expected, Fed Chair Jay Powell reassured markets that it doesn’t have a trigger finger when it comes to inflation. In his press conference following the meeting, Powell showed concern that the economic recovery had moderated and stressed that it was more dangerous to do too little than to do too much to support the economy (a sentiment echoed by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen last week as well).
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Groundhog or Canary?
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The recent market gyrations look more like an entertaining sideshow, but it’s worth asking when they might be a signal of something worse.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: The Best Way to Get a Car Out of a Ditch
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And how investors should judge the next round of government spending.