report by BlackRock
Results for ""
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Small Business Optimism Posts a Third Year of Strong Readings
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Over the past few years I’ve written about trends in small businesses based on the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Survey of Small Business Economic Trends. I follow these trends because I come from a family with multiple generations of small business owners and small companies in the United States create about two-thirds of net new jobs, drive innovation and account for 44% of U.S. economic activity.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Coronavirus and Domestic Credit
This piece is approved to use with clients.
The last recession was the sub-prime mortgage crisis, before that the dot.com bubble aggravated by the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and before that it was the Savings & Loan crisis. In these past recessions there were, at the time, issues not generally foreseen, but when they broke it opened fissures in the economy that ultimately led to a recession.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Economic Indicators Suggest President Trump's Reelection
This piece is approved to use with clients.
In testimony on Capitol Hill this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly praised the strength of the U.S. economy across multiple indicators. He pointed to an historically-low unemployment rate, rising wages, and continual, moderate overall growth. Powell has a notably turbulent relationship with President Donald Trump, but his assessment should have been music to the ears of top White House and Trump campaign officials (even if the president could not help live-Tweeting his criticism of Powell’s testimony). The economy, after all, is historically perhaps the most reliable presidential election indicator.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Is Recent Bond Market Volatility About More Than Easing Coronavirus Fears?
This piece is approved to use with clients.
As fear gives way to resolve and markets assess the potential economic impact of the coronavirus, a risk on mentality has taken hold with global equity markets taking back losses and global bond markets selling off in concert. While these fears are sometimes a bit irrational, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention estimates 12,000-61,000 Americans have died from influenza since 2010, there is no doubt we can all understand the underlying fear.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The End of the Caucus?
So that didn’t go as planned. While politicos inside the Beltway and across the country were expecting to get our first real results in the Democratic presidential primary last night, problems with tallying the vote in Iowa have caused a significant delay in reporting the results. In a story posted yesterday, The Associated Press reported Iowa Democratic Party officials had promised that “an early issue with a mobile app designed to report results” would “not hinder the Iowa caucus process.”
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Current Events Overshadowing a Nascent Recovery
This piece is approved to use with clients.
While we have previously mentioned, I feel it is important to revisit the race between the results of the FOMC’s (Federal Open Market Committee) model-driven restrictive policy in 2018 and the potential recovery borne of the Fed’s 2019 mea culpa.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Do Endorsements Matter? No … and Yes
Last year, we looked at how accurate polls going into the Iowa Caucus have been at predicting the eventual outcome of that state’s first-in-the-nation election. The conclusion, way back then, was that surveys conducted a few months out from voting have not historically been very good at telling us who was going to win.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Generational Opportunity Now and for the Next Decade?
This piece is approved to use with clients.
For most asset classes, 2019 was a terrific year for prices. Generally, the equity and bond markets enjoyed a significant surge that all but replaced their terrible performance in the 4th quarter of 2018.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The Next Trade War Will Be Digital
At a celebration of the three-centuries’ long relationship between the United States and France last spring in Baltimore, Maryland Lt. Gov. Boyd Rutherford (R) proclaimed, “The history of Maryland is intertwined with France.” While the lieutenant governor was most likely referring to French immigration to Maryland beginning in the mid-1700s that has created a vibrant “French Town” in Baltimore, the nation and the state seem to still have a lot in common: to the chagrin of other governments, both are pursuing a digital services tax (DST).