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Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Downgrading government bonds
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We broaden our tactical pro-risk stance in light of major developments since the publication of our 2021 outlook in December: the vaccine rollout and up to $2.8 trillion of additional U.S. fiscal spending this year. Inflation expectations have risen sharply while real rates are steady in negative territory. We prefer equity over credit and turn underweight government bonds – in line with our strategic views.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Fiscal boost is not a market risk – yet
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The prospect of another large U.S. fiscal package has fed debates about potential economic overheating. We believe central banks for now have strong incentives to lean against any rapid rise in nominal yields even as inflation rises, supporting our tactically pro-risk stance. Yet rising debt levels may eventually pose risks to the low-rate regime. This is part of why we strategically underweight government debt.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Why we favor tech and healthcare
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The pandemic has turbocharged transformations that were already under way – from sustainability to inequality. Yet markets have not fully priced in the durability of these trends, we believe, even with the glimpse into the future offered by the pandemic.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Valuation: not a worry for now
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Equity valuations have been top of mind after major stock indexes have scaled new highs. Last week’s volatile market moves as a result of technical deleveraging added fuel to these concerns. We do not see risk asset valuations as obviously stretched overall, and expect low interest rates – and a vaccine-led restart – to support risk assets over the next six to 12 months.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: The new nominal takes shape
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We have long flagged the potential for higher inflation in the medium term, and markets have awoken to this prospect amid expectations for large U.S. fiscal stimulus. We don’t see this derailing the risk asset rally in the near term.
Market Outlooks
Student of the Market: January 2020
Stock market returns, 2020: A wild ride, Stock fund risk, Stocks after the rebound, Flow divergence, S&P Envy, & Inflation and Investments
Market Outlooks
BlackRock 2021 Global Outlook
The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated profound shifts in how economies and societies operate.