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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Will Minimum Wage Sink COVID Relief?
Next week could bring the first major test of the durability of Democrats’ advantage in Washington. A House of Representatives vote on President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus spending package will indicate whether the party’s one-seat advantage in the Senate and its four-seat majority in the House is enough to get major legislation passed.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
An Explanation of Reconciliation
Right now, Democrats on various U.S. House and Senate committees are busy putting together their respective pieces of another COVID-19 spending relief package. The price tag for the legislation will be around $1.9 trillion – the amount President Joe Biden outlined when he took office last month.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: The Pandemic: A Credit Epilogue
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Introduction: While the COVID-19 crisis is not yet over, with cases recently spiking again, the vaccines are being administered and there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. It still remains to be seen whether new consumer behavior will stick or revert to pre-pandemic patterns.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: A dive into 2020 Fixed Income Markets & what they tell us for 2021
This piece is approved to use with clients.
The unfolding of diverse and largely unseen set of events in 2020 make it difficult to select only a few that we feel represent the tenor of the fixed income markets and the broad economy within this commentary. Clearly, the migration back into risk assets beginning in Q2 (the 2nd quarter) continued through Q4 2020 buttressed by what we think can be four primary causes:
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Let’s party like it’s 1999!
This piece is approved to use with clients.
As the calendar changed from 2020 to 2021, I can’t help but find an environment that is truly surreal. We have a raging global pandemic on our hands that is getting markedly worse on a day-by-day basis, we have vaccines that are sitting in warehouses being administered at one-tenth the rate that is necessary to accomplish the task at hand and we have millions without a job with difficult prospects of getting one in the near future.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Equity market side effects of the covid-19 vaccine
This piece is approved to use with clients.
The 337 days spanning the World Health Organization’s announcement of COVID-19 to the FDA approval of the first vaccine the world witnessed many social, economic, and scientific events few thought possible.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Light at the end of the tunnel
This piece is approved to use with clients.
The year 2020 and the start of 2021 will be burned into the collective consciousness for quite some time for a myriad of reasons and given this we probably shouldn’t rehash every headline here. However, from an investment standpoint we can summarize 2020 very simply as:
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: The pivot point for 2021
This piece is approved to use with clients.
In a year filled with a cacophony of conflicting messages and each one portrayed as the real black swan event to change the world, it seems overly provincial to narrow the next year down to one metric. However, when this metric is and has been highly disregarded as a material issue anymore, it seems those events approach a level of blind spot that transforms markets.
Portfolio Construction Insights
[Presentation] How to Build Wealth with a Behavioral Approach to Portfolio Construction | Webinar 2
2020 has been an unprecedented and emotionally-charged ride—the most difficult for advisors in over a decade.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints – Our generational opportunity call on commodities remains intact
This piece is approved to use with clients.
In January of this year we published my Viewpoints article, “Generational Opportunity Now for the Next Decade?” The article was a contrarian call on the prices of commodities and outlined what we felt was a very significant price apex and the opportunities that created. Our “big call” for 2020 was a historically compelling opportunity to over allocate to commodities (which we framed as Metals, Materials, Agriculture and Energy) in portfolios.