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Market Outlooks
Advisor Perspectives: CAPE is a Very Noisy Market Predictor
Analysts have many ways to estimate expected market returns. The challenge is to identify those few that provide usable information for making investment decisions. In this article, I discuss one of the common mistakes made in this type of analysis and why the cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE), developed by Robert Shiller, is not nearly as reliable a predictor of market returns as most claim it to be.
Market Outlooks
Behavioural Advisor: Beware Predictions and Magic Elixirs
The market and economy have gone through unprecedented events with a global pandemic, the shut-down of economies, massive government intervention and dramatic market swings.
Market Outlooks
Is This Rebound for Real? And Is Now a Good Time to Double-Check Risk Tolerance?
This piece is approved to use with clients.
We take a closer look at the recent US stock market rally from its March low, and address some questions frequently asked by advisors around assessing risk and behavioral coaching in these unusual times.
Client Experience
Inspired Client Review Meetings
As we navigate fallout from the global pandemic, it can be easy to focus on the short-term pain we feel from market volatility instead of the potential rewards of sticking with a long-term financial plan. Join President and Global CIO Daniel Needham and Head of Decision Sciences Ryan Murphy, who will discuss key messages to consider for mid-year check-ins and ideas to help clients stay focused on what really matters in times like these.
Client Experience
Overconfident? Cognitively Rigid? How Investors Can Make Better Decisions by Dealing With Emotions and Biases
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Sarah Newcomb, director of behavioral science at Morningstar, Inc., discusses emotions brought on by market loss, talks about how they can affect decisions, and offers some ways to cope. Ryan Murphy, head of decision sciences at Morningstar Investment Management, discusses cognitive biases to watch out for and ways investors can make better decisions.
Market Outlooks
‘Essential Businesses’: Managing Focused Stock Portfolios in a COVID-19 World
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Our equity portfolio managers talk about how they're navigating the COVID-19 crisis and their outlook.
Market Outlooks
U.S. vs. International Stocks: Will Next Decade’s Performance Look Different From the Last?
This piece is approved to use with clients.
International equity markets have trailed the U.S. for more than a decade. Does that make this asset class an opportunity or a value trap? We describe why we think international markets are poised for outperformance.
Market Outlooks
After the Rebound, Is It Time to Sell?
This piece is approved to use with clients.
We believe markets have priced in a fairly optimistic economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis, but some markets have increased significantly, while others have lagged. Here’s our take on long-term opportunities.