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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
3 Points About China
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Clamping down on China has become a bipartisan effort in the United States, but I believe an outright conflict between China and Taiwan is a low-probability (albeit high-impact) event—and I remain constructive on the bottom-up, long-term investment opportunities in China, including the transition to a domestic-consumption-driven and lower-carbon economy.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
The Active Share: Are Microchips the New Oil?
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Microchips are the building blocks of the modern economy, but what are the geopolitical implications of this new power player?
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Recession Resistance: Can We Prove That Recessions Don't Matter?
Increasingly, investors seem focused on the potential for a recession. In this webcast, we discuss...
Behavioral Finance
Direct Indexing and the IKEA Effect
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The “IKEA effect” describes a cognitive bias that happens when people put in some form of labor to complete a project or finish a creation. Direct indexing won’t solve the behavior gap, but it has the potential to create better investor behaviors by allowing investors to play a larger role in the portfolio-building process.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Corporate earnings: Growth clouds have arrived
While many macro signals have already triggered current recessionary conditions in some pockets of the economy, the 4Q22 inversion of the 3m10y Treasury yield curve means that investors need to prepare portfolios for the volatile period that is likely ahead.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
PodCast: Episode 34: Revenge of the Old Economy
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Low interest rates and a focus on being green led to significant underinvestment in the old economy. Netflix rose and Exxon fell. But we’re now beginning a rotation away from the new economy back to the old, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode of The Active Share, Jeff tells Hugo how he sees the future of energy, from green tech to oil, from the east to the west—who will win, who will lose, and how investors can prepare.