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Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Reasonable Municipal Downgrades?
This piece is approved to use with clients.
For the past several months, the rating agencies have been imposing new standards in the ratings of municipal revenue bonds by imposing ceilings on these ratings linked to the issuer’s general obligation (GO) pledge. This has resulted in downgrades of some well-known, and not-so-well-known, issuers despite no change in the fundamental credit profile of the revenue bond, or the related general obligation bond, issuer. In fact, some of these downgrades occurred in the face of an improving credit profile.
Fixed Income Insights
Portfolio makeover: Are there hidden risks in your bonds?
To help you spot hidden risks in your bond allocations, this portfolio makeover tackles three common fixed income issues and serves as a case study for ways to add stability to your portfolios.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Economic Problems in Europe and China Are Real – So Are The Opportunities
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Two of our high conviction best ideas for 2019 include Emerging Markets and Europe. After a dismal year for global equity markets in 2018, both markets have gotten off to a great start in 2019 roughly keeping pace with the United States. According to Bloomberg, year to date through March 15, Emerging Markets (as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index) is up an impressive 9.73% while the S&P 500 outpaces being up 12.8%. Europe (as measured by the Eurostoxx 50) is up a respectable 12.87%. What should we expect for the balance of the year?
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: And the Beat Goes On... Liquidity and Leverage
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Continuing the discussion from last week about the discussion of Leverage and Liquidity, we focus a bit on why there are some economic and market metrics that don’t corroborate the “feelings” that permeate discussions.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Liquidity and Leverage, Forever Dance Partners
This piece is approved to use with clients.
With the tariff two step currently being displayed between the United States and China, it is easy to overlook two components of a late-stage economic cycle that often foreshadows the severity of the next downturn. While the downturn does not appear imminent, it is still an event that one should be prepared for as the capital market prices will price it in before the actual occurrence.
Market Outlooks
A view of China from the ground up
Living in Hong Kong with a view of the Chinese mainland, Capital Group portfolio manager Steve Watson has a front-row seat to the long-running U.S.-China trade dispute.
Business Development
5 ways to make your workplace a better place
Organizational psychologist Adam Grant shares five ideas that he believes could go a long way toward improving the sometimes contentious relationship between labor and management.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Regardless of Outcome, The U.S.-China Trade Dispute May Accelerate the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Most reports suggest that trade talks between the U.S. and China are progressing at a measured pace and that an agreement is near completion. The expectation that a deal will be reached looks to be priced into the stock market, so a positive outcome would likely be met with sighs of relief instead of champagne corks popping.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints – Corporate Bond Trends
This piece is approved to use with clients.
In the 4th quarter (Q4) investors began preparing for the credit cycle to come to an end and concerns mounted related to potential corporate downgrades. Corporate spreads widened during Q4 and presented opportunities for investors in lower investment grade and high yield credits as Q1 2019 was a strong quarter for risk assets. The ICE BofAML US Corporate BBB Index spread tightened by 52 basis points (bps) and BB credits are 140 bps tighter than they finished 2018 (see the Option Adjusted Spread (OAS) changes in the table below). High yield bonds have rallied more so far this year making BBBs look cheap on a relative basis. The lowest investment grade bonds, rated in the BBB range, lagged high grade credits in Q4, but were up 5.57% in Q1 and have annualized 7.91% over the past 10 years.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Municipal Bond Portfolios, Recent Federal Tax Reform, and Unintended Consequences
This piece is approved to use with clients.
With the new federal tax legislation capping state and local tax (SALT) deductions at a maximum of $10,000 for Federal taxes, in the case of high state income tax states, the unintended consequence may be that Municipal Bond investors residing in those states have become too highly concentrated in their own state-issued municipal bonds.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Earnings Recession Likely – Why This Time Might Be Different
This piece is approved to use with clients.
First quarter earnings season is upon us and for the first time since the second quarter of 2016, the S&P 500 Index will most likely report a decline in aggregate year-over-year earnings. Piling on, estimates for the second quarter are essentially flat and will likely be revised into negative territory if the downward trend continues. This sets up the possibility of back-to-back quarters of negative earnings growth or an “Earnings Recession” which typically does not bode well for the equity market.
Fixed Income Insights
6 ways to use munis under the new tax law
Tax reform removed several major deductions, leaving munis as one of the best remaining tax-advantaged vehicles. Learn how to make the most of them.