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Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Gauging geopolitical risks
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The market focus is on the restart and inflation - and less on geopolitical risks – yet it’s worth watching specific risks as flareups could catch investors off guard.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Don’t be surprised by surprising data
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We see the recent inflation spike as temporary due to unique restart forces, but see inflation on the rise in the medium term. Both views keep us pro-risk.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Mind the (rate expectation) gap
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Markets are pricing in a liftoff from near-zero policy rates as early as next year, even though the Fed through its new framework has committed to stay behind the curve on inflation.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Inflation: beyond near-term volatility
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Inflation looks set to overshoot the Fed’s target as we have expected. Yet we see uncertainties around the near-term persistence of the overshoot as the restart leads to unusual supply and demand dynamics.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Why we remain pro-risk
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A powerful economic restart is underway in the U.S. – with Europe and emerging markets (EMs) set to follow. At the same time our new nominal theme has been playing out, with a hefty jump in inflation expectations but a more muted rise in nominal yields. Against this backdrop, we reiterate our pro-risk stance and refine our tactical views in response to adjustments in market pricing and valuations.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Why we like emerging market assets
This piece is approved to use with clients.
We see the economic restart and greater stability in U.S. government bond yields - as indicated by our new nominal theme - supporting emerging market assets over coming months. Their valuations appear relatively attractive in a world of low yields after a choppy start to the year.