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Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: China emerges from virus lockdowns
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China’s economy – the first to enter lockdowns and the first to emerge from them – is restarting. We see the economy likely returning to near-trend growth by late 2020, supported by policy stimulus, especially on the monetary front.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Virus compels a strategic view revamp
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The coronavirus shock is reinforcing structural trends and introducing new ones, such as the policy revolution, surging sustainability wave and accelerating deglobalization. In many ways, the future is arriving fast.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Looking through the market turmoil
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The coronavirus outbreak is set to deliver a sharp and deep economic shock. Market moves are reminiscent of the 2008 crisis, but we don’t think this is a repeat. Stringent containment and social distancing policies will bring economic activity to a near standstill, but provided aggressive fiscal and monetary policy actions are taken to bridge businesses and households through the shock, activity should return rapidly with little permanent economic damage.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Policy response to virus takes shape
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The coronavirus outbreak has continued to roil markets, even as significant monetary policy steps have been taken. Uncertainties related to the outbreak give public health officials a strong incentive to act aggressively to mitigate its human toll. These measures, though temporary in nature, slow economic activity, sometimes precipitously. We believe this will eventually set the scene for a strong rebound, but a decisive policy response is needed to safeguard fundamentals.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Virus outbreak turns us cautious
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The spread of the coronavirus beyond China has opened up a new global dimension to the epidemic – and potential for a sharper economic drag from efforts to contain it. We expect the economic expansion to remain intact, albeit on a lower track.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Our views on equity style factors
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The coronavirus outbreak has altered market dynamics since late January. One example: Quality has posted more muted gains after strong outperformance in late 2019. We stand by our tactical views on factors for now, including a modest overweight on quality. These are anchored by our outlook that a global growth uptick will likely resume once the outbreak recedes, although the depth and width of the eventual V-shaped recovery are uncertain.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Testing our global outlook
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The February update to our Global Outlook reaffirms our expectation for global growth to edge higher this year, even as the coronavirus outbreak has introduced uncertainties. Past epidemics have seen V-shaped economic recoveries – a pattern we expect see this time as well. Yet the depth and width of the “V” are highly uncertain. This outbreak could be more disruptive than past ones because it could be more severe, and because of greater reliance on global supply chains.