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Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Testing our global outlook
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The February update to our Global Outlook reaffirms our expectation for global growth to edge higher this year, even as the coronavirus outbreak has introduced uncertainties. Past epidemics have seen V-shaped economic recoveries – a pattern we expect see this time as well. Yet the depth and width of the “V” are highly uncertain. This outbreak could be more disruptive than past ones because it could be more severe, and because of greater reliance on global supply chains.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: U.S. equities: we are still neutral
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Market performance since early December has been a story of two phases: Emerging market (EM) equities had rallied and U.S. equities moved in line with global equities until the coronavirus outbreak in late January, reinforcing views in our 2020 Global Outlook.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Coronavirus worry clouds markets
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The coronavirus outbreak emanating from China has sent jitters across financial markets amid fears of a hit to the global economy. We still expect growth to edge higher in 2020 thanks to easier financial conditions and trade tensions going sideways, yet the unknown magnitude and duration of the outbreak pose downside risks.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: U.S. dollar underpins EM assets
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We see the U.S. dollar stabilizing or weakening over the next six to 12 months. Two broad drivers – monetary policy differentials and risk appetite – decide the dollar’s moves, in our view.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: A cyclical rotation
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Markets have greeted the new year with optimism. The signing of a limited “Phase 1” deal between the U.S. and China reinforces our expectation for global trade tensions to take a pause in 2020.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Geopolitical risks on our 2020 radar
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U.S.-Iran tensions have spiked in recent weeks with the U.S. killing of a top Iranian military leader triggering retaliation. This reminds us of still heightened geopolitical risks across many dimensions, even as we see a relatively benign backdrop for risk assets in 2020.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Guide to our 2020 outlook
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We see a big shift in the macro environment in the year ahead – as the dovish monetary policy pivot of 2019 fades as a market driver. We detail these views in our 2020 Global outlook.