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Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Current Events Overshadowing a Nascent Recovery
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While we have previously mentioned, I feel it is important to revisit the race between the results of the FOMC’s (Federal Open Market Committee) model-driven restrictive policy in 2018 and the potential recovery borne of the Fed’s 2019 mea culpa.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Generational Opportunity Now and for the Next Decade?
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For most asset classes, 2019 was a terrific year for prices. Generally, the equity and bond markets enjoyed a significant surge that all but replaced their terrible performance in the 4th quarter of 2018.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Attempting to Right-Size Expectations
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A quick canvas of the headlines and sound bites detailing market outlooks for 2020 includes some positivity but also many phrases, such as: get more defensive, returns will be muted, now is not a good time to be investing and don’t expect a repeat of 2019 anytime soon.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: 2020 Earnings Outlook
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Tis the season for outlooks and one of the more dependable indicators for the equity market over time has been the direction of corporate earnings. Not surprisingly, as the earnings power of U.S. corporations has grown, equity prices have moved higher.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Global Monetary Policy: Easing Like Sunday Morning
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In anticipation of the Federal Reserve lowering rates next week at their meeting and the announcement this week that the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced rates to -0.50% and increased their purchasing of bonds a month, we believe it to be worthwhile to look at where we may be headed in policy and market action. Now we may be accused of being a bit presumptive about a future event such as an interest rate cut next week, however, we feel a bit confident in that the market is currently pricing in a 99.9% chance of a rate cut according to the Fed Fund Futures.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Is ESG A Magic Green Button?
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Have you read any research on ESG investing recently? If you have, then you’ll know that academic studies continue to stress the positive alpha-generating potential of ESG factors.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Contrarian Market Signals: What is certain about uncertainty?
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Contrary to narratives bombarding the markets right now, certain indicators are historically very bullish for equity assets. Though the anxiety about the flock of “black swans” being right around the corner helps to mitigate over exuberance, it astonishes me how many times we forget the previous prognostications and make new cases for the failed projection. Recently, I have been reflecting on Mark Twain’s quote: “I've had a lot of worries in my life, most of which never happened.”
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Look Beyond the Volatility to Find Return
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Periods of volatility in fixed income and equity markets are nothing new but with each one comes a parade of teeth gnashing and hand wringing by experts extolling the virtues of selected investments while simultaneously predicting events often referred to as being much more dire than those we are experiencing at the moment. It seems, more often than not, that such bold predictions make for good headlines but rarely for investment results.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: The Japanification of the Global Economy
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The state of global interest rates is sinking quickly. Negative interest rates have now engulfed over $15 trillion of global sovereign debt with nearly 30% of all developed country sovereign debt having a negative yield.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Reasonable Municipal Downgrades?
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For the past several months, the rating agencies have been imposing new standards in the ratings of municipal revenue bonds by imposing ceilings on these ratings linked to the issuer’s general obligation (GO) pledge. This has resulted in downgrades of some well-known, and not-so-well-known, issuers despite no change in the fundamental credit profile of the revenue bond, or the related general obligation bond, issuer. In fact, some of these downgrades occurred in the face of an improving credit profile.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Economic Problems in Europe and China Are Real – So Are The Opportunities
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Two of our high conviction best ideas for 2019 include Emerging Markets and Europe. After a dismal year for global equity markets in 2018, both markets have gotten off to a great start in 2019 roughly keeping pace with the United States. According to Bloomberg, year to date through March 15, Emerging Markets (as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index) is up an impressive 9.73% while the S&P 500 outpaces being up 12.8%. Europe (as measured by the Eurostoxx 50) is up a respectable 12.87%. What should we expect for the balance of the year?