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Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: A developing story in emerging markets
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Forge strong bonds with emerging markets. The “year of fixed income” narrative put forth by pundits entering 2024 isn’t just a U.S. story; emerging markets (EM) debt also has a featured role in the script.
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary: Treasury yields fall with inflation data steady
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U.S. Treasury yields fell across the curve as inflation data met expectations. This week, the European Central Bank is scheduled to meet and Fed Chair Powell will testify to Congress. On Friday, the February jobs report is expected to show a hiring slowdown.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: The case for allocating to higher-yielding assets
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Heading into 2024, bond yields stood at their highest levels in more than a decade, prompting some market pundits and prognosticators to declare this “the year of fixed income!” It’s too early to confirm that pronouncement, but there’s evidence to support a strong showing across global bond markets.
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary: Fed outlook continues to sway Treasury yields
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U.S. Treasury yields were mixed as the market continues to push out the pricing for the first U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, but risk sentiment was well supported.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: Small stands tall in the face of inflation
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Bigger isn’t always better. U.S. small cap equities underperformed their large cap counterparts by nearly 10 percentage points in 2023, causing the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the small cap Russell 2000 Index versus the large cap Russell 100 Index to hover near its lowest level since December 2001 (Figure 2).
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary: Treasury yields rise as inflation data climb
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U.S. Treasury yields moved higher again last week as inflation moderated less than expected.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: With inflation warm, consider infrastructure investments
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Last week’s market pullback served as a reminder of just how fragile the current bull market has been since it has been built largely on overly dovish expectations for monetary policy and interest rates.
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary: Economic data push Treasury yields higher
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U.S. Treasury yields moved higher last week, as strong U.S. economic data and hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve rhetoric caused markets to push back expectations for rate cuts.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: Magnificent munis
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U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the curve in 2024, with the 10-year yield now more than 4%. Anticipating a slowdown in economic growth, we forecast the 10-year yield to end 2024 at around 3.50%.
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary: Treasury yields decline despite a hawkish Fed
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U.S. Treasury yields rallied last week. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that a rate cut in March is unlikely, and surprisingly strong U.S. employment data served as a second blow for fixed income investors hoping for early rate cuts.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: Real estate beckons as rate hopes waver
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Aggressive central bank rate-hiking policies have taken a toll on private real estate markets since late 2022.
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary: Treasury yields mixed on strong economic data
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U.S. Treasury yields were mixed last week and spread sectors outperformed as fourth quarter U.S. GDP exceeded expectations.