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Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Assessing the globe’s three-pronged policy response to coronavirus
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he coronavirus pandemic is spreading in Europe, the UK, Canada, and the US — and economic activity is grinding to a halt in some sectors as discretionary spending and activity have been sharply reduced in favor of basic needs.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Could the surge in market volatility signal the end of the current market cycle?
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Last Friday, Russia surprised markets by refusing the production cuts the rest of OPEC+ supported — cuts that were needed to stabilize oil prices in the face of the coronavirus-related hit to global demand. Saudi Arabia responded over the weekend by announcing an actual increase in oil production. This comes on the heels of an announcement by Italy effectively shutting down much of northern Italy.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: As markets struggle, where do global economies go from here?
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We have seen a rapid and dramatic market correction as a result of the news flow around the COVID-19 outbreak. This appears to be an overreaction, in my view — but I would not be surprised to see the sell-off continue as uncertainty remains high on key issues: ease of transmission, length of time a person can be infected and contagious without showing symptoms, mortality rates, and length of time before the infection rate stabilizes globally.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Recent data reveal the economic impact of coronavirus
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Last week both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes hit all-time highs mid-week before falling significantly at the end of the week on fears about the novel coronavirus (also known as COVID-19) impacting economic growth. Concerns about the contagion were amplified by the release of US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) flash data for February.
Market Outlooks
A four-month shopping spree
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Measured from October to January, holiday retail sales impressed.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: The market impact of coronavirus has begun to spread
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The floodgates are opening. Companies are beginning to warn that the coronavirus outbreak will impact earnings, and stocks have begun to react negatively. Yesterday, Apple announced that the contagion will cause it to miss revenue forecasts for the quarter. The problems are on both the sales and production ends: Most Apple stores in China remain closed, and while Apple factories there have reopened, they are not operating at full capacity but instead are slowly ramping up production. In addition, Tesla and Alibaba have recently provided coronavirus-related earnings warnings. Alibaba has gone so far as to label the coronavirus outbreak a “black swan event.”
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Three key takeaways from the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report
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In last week’s blog, I noted that what I would be following most closely that week was the release of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Report, because it provides insight on what the Fed is thinking. On Friday, the Fed released this semi-annual report in advance of Fed Chair Jay Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony before Congress on Feb. 11 and 12.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Three issues that could keep global markets reeling
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Last week was a momentous one for markets, with coronavirus fears gripping markets and creating a risk-off environment. Stocks sold off while yields on government bonds also fell.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Assessing the market impact of the Wuhan coronavirus
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The outbreak of novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, and in pockets around the world has garnered significant public concern, and the global financial market is on edge. We have received numerous questions about the potential impact to investors and how the economic effects of the coronavirus might compare to past outbreaks such as the spread of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in 2003.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: The US-China trade deal presents a paradox for markets
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Last week, the US and China signed their Phase 1 trade agreement. This trade deal is a paradox — in my view, it is both inconsequential and yet extremely important.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: What could the US-Iran conflict mean for investors?
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After the US killing of Qassim Suleimani on Jan. 3 and Iran’s retaliatory, non-lethal missile strike against two US military facilities in Iraq on Jan. 7, the situation appears to have de-escalated. However, investors continue to worry about the potential for this conflict between the US and Iran to worsen. We do not believe that a war is likely at this juncture, but it is important to understand the potential effects that such a worst-case scenario could have on the markets.
Human Capital
Rate Swings Needn't Rattle Dividend Investors
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Fluctuating rates may impact other forms of income but dividend payments aren't likely to be affected.