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Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Has "irrational exuberance" gotten the better of markets?
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Well, let me try to answer that question based on my own experience. I entered the financial services industry in late 1995, a bright-eyed and eager runaway from the practice of law. Not soon afterward, I listened intently to a historic speech by then-Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan, who suggested that the stock market was exhibiting “irrational exuberance.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Market speculation hit a new level this week with GameStop, and the Fed threw cold water on inflation concerns.
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The Federal Reserve (Fed) met last week and, as I expected, Fed Chair Jay Powell reassured markets that it doesn’t have a trigger finger when it comes to inflation. In his press conference following the meeting, Powell showed concern that the economic recovery had moderated and stressed that it was more dangerous to do too little than to do too much to support the economy (a sentiment echoed by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen last week as well).
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: The next few months could be a slog for these economies
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What a week — both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite Indexes reached all-time highs last Thursday, but we also saw a reversal of the rotation from growth/defensives to cyclicals in both European and US markets.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: The economy may not truly turn the page until spring
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It might be 2021, but it doesn’t feel like a new year in many parts of the world. We haven’t yet turned the page on all the difficulties of the past year, so it seems like we are stuck in 2020.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: It was a week of surprise, horror and disappointment. Why didn’t stocks react?
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The past week has been a momentous one, to say the least. It was filled with surprise, horror and disappointment — certainly in the US, but also for those watching around the world.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: I believe a robust, inclusive economic recovery is in the cards
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Happy New Year! No one wants a year in review for 2020, but here is what I learned from the past year: History may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme. What we learned from 2020 is a repeat of the lesson we learned from the global financial crisis (GFC): Central banks are very powerful.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Brian Levitt and Talley Léger continue their discussion about what could impact a 2021 economic recovery
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The “recovery” trade is a hot topic of conversation, and so far the trends appear to support that storyline. But it’s important to watch out for blind spots and biases. Recently, we sat down to discuss what we’re seeing in the markets and the questions that could surprise us in 2021.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: I Address nine issues to follow over the next few weeks
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This is the last blog of the year for me. And what a year it has been — one full of loss. Loss of people, first and foremost, and also of businesses. It was just reported the other day that New York icon The 21 Club will be closing for good, the latest of many service-related businesses to sadly fall victim to the pandemic. I think we are all eagerly waiting to close the books on 2020 and looking forward to brighter days in 2021.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Western economies may get worse before they get better
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While I have never lived in Florida, I have spent enough time there since childhood to be familiar with a weather phenomenon referred to as “the mean season.” It describes a brutal weather pattern that typically occurs in the late summer months.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: We present a base case, an upside case, and a downside case for our 2021 global market outlook
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Every year at this time, we issue our global market outlook for the coming year. That exercise is especially complex at this moment — the shape of economic growth in 2021 is dependent on a wide variety of factors, including infection rates, fiscal policy, monetary policy, public health policy (including the severity — or “stringency” — of lockdowns), progress toward the development of COVID-19 therapies and vaccines, and consumer and business confidence.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: As we face a challenging Thanksgiving holiday, we highlight reasons to be optimistic about the markets
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It won’t be the Thanksgiving that many of us had envisioned. COVID cases are currently rising at catastrophic rates, and hospitalizations and fatality rates are following in tow. Family plans have been meaningfully altered — I, for one, won’t be attending the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade for the first time in decades.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Investors gain clarity on a COVID-19 vaccine, the presidential election, Brexit negotiations, and more
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The British philosopher Bertrand Russell once said, “What men want is not knowledge but certainty.” I have been thinking a lot about that quote in the last several weeks, and how especially in such uncertain times, certainty may be more helpful than knowledge in allowing us to move forward.