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Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Higher bar for U.S. earnings to deliver
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We saw 2024 as a year of two stories. First, cooling inflation and solid corporate earnings would support upbeat risk appetite.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Earnings growth not just about tech
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Solid U.S. economic and corporate earnings growth have supported risk appetite, driving stocks to all-time highs – even as bond yields have jumped. We think earnings will need to deliver on high expectations, especially after last week’s data showing sticky inflation spooked investors.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Playing demographic divergence now
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Working-age populations are shrinking across developed markets (DMs) but still growing in emerging markets (EMs). That hurts DM economic growth and favors EM growth – a divergence that is broadly reflected in asset prices, in our view.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Staying nimble while seeking income
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Yields jumped as central banks hiked rates to historic highs – ushering in a new era for fixed income. We see higher yields persisting even if rate cuts are coming.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Why we stay risk-on in the short term
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Central bank activity last week gave markets the thumbs up to stay upbeat. That keeps us pro-risk in our six- to 12-month tactical views as Q2 starts.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: U.S. & Japan: a tale of two overweights
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Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan (BOJ) meetings this week and recent data put a spotlight on the U.S. and Japanese macro environments. U.S. markets are pricing in a positive macro backdrop as inflation cools.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Low-carbon transition themes in 2024
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The low-carbon transition is a mega force we track that is shaping investment returns now. We see potentially market-moving developments in three key areas this year.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Taking selective risk in credit
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Getting granular and being nimble to seize opportunities in the new regime are key lessons guiding us.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Japan stocks: high can go higher
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We believe Japan’s equity rally has room to run – unlike some past false starts. We think both the macro outlook and company-level developments will drive the next leg.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Strategic reasons to get active
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U.S. stocks recovered after a hit from strong inflation data last week, highlighting one data point won’t disrupt buoyant risk appetite. We’re tactically overweight U.S. stocks as we think market optimism can persist for now.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Staying selective in emerging markets
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We see broader support for emerging markets (EMs) given the market’s upbeat sentiment on risk assets as U.S. growth holds up, inflation cools and the Federal Reserve prepares to cut policy rates. EMs have been resilient to the latest Fed rate hikes.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Earnings unlikely to spoil stock rally
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U.S. Q4 corporate earnings season is in full swing. We don’t see it spoiling upbeat risk appetite for now. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high last week as most top tech firms beat high earnings expectations.