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Market Outlooks
The bear market goes on…until it doesn’t
When trying to put in perspective the shortest bear market in US history—at least a bear market that saw the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) sell off 30%+—there are any number of directions one can go.
Market Outlooks
Advisor Perspectives: CAPE is a Very Noisy Market Predictor
Analysts have many ways to estimate expected market returns. The challenge is to identify those few that provide usable information for making investment decisions. In this article, I discuss one of the common mistakes made in this type of analysis and why the cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE), developed by Robert Shiller, is not nearly as reliable a predictor of market returns as most claim it to be.
Fixed Income Insights
The US 10-Year Note Yield – the good, the bad, and the (possibly) ugly
The US 10-Year Note is the most important fixed income instrument in the world. Its yield determines the borrowing costs for countries, companies, and consumers while the Note itself acts as a haven asset during periods of market and economic stress.
Market Outlooks
Behavioural Advisor: Beware Predictions and Magic Elixirs
The market and economy have gone through unprecedented events with a global pandemic, the shut-down of economies, massive government intervention and dramatic market swings.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: What ails “King Dollar”
This piece is approved to use with clients.
We live in a world where the US dollar dominates – meaning more trade and financial transactions use it and more are held by global central and commercial banks than any other currency.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: 99 days until Election Day
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In 99 days, Americans will choose the next President of the United States. Presidential elections are weighty affairs, heavy with history and allegory, and they serve as a mirror to America – where we think we are, where we think we should be headed, and how we think we should get there.
Active/Passive Management
Advisor Perspectives: The Dawn of a New Active-Equity Era
Is the market environment turning favorable for active equity managers? It seems a strange question to ask in the midst of a pandemic and heightened market volatility, but history tells us that it is during just such turbulent times that active managers excel. There is accumulating evidence that market conditions are growing more attractive for showcasing stock-picking skills.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: The market’s wall of worry is daunting, but it’s got nothing on El Capitan
This piece is approved to use with clients.
As we tried these past few months to put a very unusual – and very stressful – market and economic environment in perspective, we leaned on a few bits of timeless Wall Street wisdom, including “Don’t Fight The Fed” and “Don’t Try To Time The Market,” which are ways of reminding ourselves monetary policy is an exceptionally powerful tool for spurring or slowing the economy, and drawdowns and volatility are part and parcel of investing.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Dr. Copper’s Prognosis
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When it comes to doctors, there are a lot. The list includes famous (real) ones like Jonas Salk, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Marie Curie; famous (fictional) ones like Dr. Evil, Meredith Grey, Marcus Welby; and famous doctors who really aren’t doctors but go by the title, including the late Jazz musician Dr. John and the great Julius “Dr. J” Erving (remember, Brinker Capital is a Philadelphia-based company).
Market Outlooks
Dr. Copper’s Prognosis
When it comes to doctors, there are a lot. The list includes famous (real) ones like Jonas Salk, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Marie Curie; famous (fictional) ones like Dr. Evil, Meredith Grey, Marcus Welby; and famous doctors who really aren’t . . .
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: With apologies to the Dave Brubeck Quartet, here’s our “Take Five”
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Even casual fans of jazz – which we believe to be the great American art form – can easily recognize the opening cords to The Dave Brubeck Quartet’s classic, “Take Five.” Released in 1959 and penned by the quartet’s alto saxophonist Paul Desmond, “Take Five” was the first jazz single to sell one million copies and is the biggest selling jazz single of all time. So, with apologies to the great Dave Brubeck and The Dave Brubeck Quartet, here is our “Take Five,” or five things we think are worth thinking about as we move into the second half of 2020.
Market Outlooks
Vlog: Quarter-end Q&A 2Q2020
Tim Holland, CFA, Global Investment Strategist, asks and answers three top-of-mind questions as investors receive their quarterly statements and reflect on the past quarter.