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Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Sometimes, it’s all about expectations
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Sometimes in life it’s not so much what you do, it’s what you do relative to what the world expects of you, like Lloyd Christmas in Dumb & Dumber, totally redeeming himself in the eyes of Harry Dunne when he trades their van “straight up, to a kid in town” for a moped that gets 70 MPGs.
Market Outlooks
Sometimes, it’s all about expectations
Sometimes in life it’s not so much what you do, it’s what you do relative to what the world expects of you, like Lloyd Christmas in Dumb & Dumber, totally redeeming himself in the eyes of Harry Dunne when he trades their van “straight up, to a kid in town” for a moped that gets 70 MPGs
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: It’s the final countdown…to the election
This piece is approved to use with clients.
As the 2020 Presidential election draws near, our attention instinctively turns to Europe – the Swedish pop-metal band, not the continent – and their mid-80s chart-topper, The Final Countdown.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Behavioral Advisor: Your Investments are Non-Partisan
With the election year fury reaching its apex, it is easy to believe that political outcomes in November will have a significant impact on your investments.
Market Outlooks
The bear market goes on…until it doesn’t
When trying to put in perspective the shortest bear market in US history—at least a bear market that saw the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) sell off 30%+—there are any number of directions one can go.
Market Outlooks
Advisor Perspectives: CAPE is a Very Noisy Market Predictor
Analysts have many ways to estimate expected market returns. The challenge is to identify those few that provide usable information for making investment decisions. In this article, I discuss one of the common mistakes made in this type of analysis and why the cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE), developed by Robert Shiller, is not nearly as reliable a predictor of market returns as most claim it to be.
Fixed Income Insights
The US 10-Year Note Yield – the good, the bad, and the (possibly) ugly
The US 10-Year Note is the most important fixed income instrument in the world. Its yield determines the borrowing costs for countries, companies, and consumers while the Note itself acts as a haven asset during periods of market and economic stress.
Market Outlooks
Behavioural Advisor: Beware Predictions and Magic Elixirs
The market and economy have gone through unprecedented events with a global pandemic, the shut-down of economies, massive government intervention and dramatic market swings.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: What ails “King Dollar”
This piece is approved to use with clients.
We live in a world where the US dollar dominates – meaning more trade and financial transactions use it and more are held by global central and commercial banks than any other currency.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: 99 days until Election Day
This piece is approved to use with clients.
In 99 days, Americans will choose the next President of the United States. Presidential elections are weighty affairs, heavy with history and allegory, and they serve as a mirror to America – where we think we are, where we think we should be headed, and how we think we should get there.
Active/Passive Management
Advisor Perspectives: The Dawn of a New Active-Equity Era
Is the market environment turning favorable for active equity managers? It seems a strange question to ask in the midst of a pandemic and heightened market volatility, but history tells us that it is during just such turbulent times that active managers excel. There is accumulating evidence that market conditions are growing more attractive for showcasing stock-picking skills.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: The market’s wall of worry is daunting, but it’s got nothing on El Capitan
This piece is approved to use with clients.
As we tried these past few months to put a very unusual – and very stressful – market and economic environment in perspective, we leaned on a few bits of timeless Wall Street wisdom, including “Don’t Fight The Fed” and “Don’t Try To Time The Market,” which are ways of reminding ourselves monetary policy is an exceptionally powerful tool for spurring or slowing the economy, and drawdowns and volatility are part and parcel of investing.